Search results for "Cicles econòmics"
showing 3 items of 3 documents
Econometric Model to Estimate Defaults on Payment in the Spanish Financial Sector in Oliver Wyman's Stress Tests.
2016
This work develops an econometric model based on the exogenous economic variables used in Oliver Wyman´s report. In this case the model is used in order to estimate late payments (NPLs) by Spanish credit entities. A model based on variables considered to be optimal to quantify impact on the NPLs is developed by studying the aforementioned variables, modifying them and eliminating any which are superfluous. Furthermore, whether or not the model is optimal for long periods of time is corroborated. This is due to the fact that the scenario in Oliver Wyman´s report from September 2012 (Wyman 2012) is based on 30 years of Spanish economical historical data, as stated in the report itself. The re…
Importance of balance sheet composition in stress test estimates
2019
The stress tests are based on macroeconomic variables for the estimations of the results. However, there are other factors that may influence them. This paper studies the influence of the balance sheet structure in the NPL and the loss caused by the NPL using econometric models. The objective is to research how they affect the aggregates in the balance sheet to the delay in payment and the the provision for impairment, distinguishing these effects according to the economic cycle, so that can be applied to the stress test. The results show that the Balance sheet structure is important in delinquency and losses caused by it, especially in respect of stockholders’ funds, ECB resources and …
Effects of economic variables on NPLs depending on the economic cycle. Empirical Economics
2019
Late payments are a major problem for Spanish banks. This paper studies as determinants of loan delinquency: unemployment, interest rates, inflation, housing prices, leverage, bad debt coverage and solvency, which were the main problems facing the Spanish economy between 2004 and 2015, and also examines these determinants in periods of growth and recession. The results show that the price of housing, bad debt coverage, interest rates and solvency are the variables with the greatest impact on NPLs. Furthermore, differences exist in the behaviour of variables during periods of growth compared with periods of recession. Inertia of the dependent variable has also been detected.